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2013 CIF Finals
Preview

Use of Rain Course Likely

Despite no rain in the forecast for Saturday, “chances are very high” that the rain course will be used for the Finals, according to an inside source.  Presumably, the mountain course is too dangerous due to the recent rains.  A decision on the course will be made early Saturday morning but a lack of sun on Friday has not done much to dry out the course.  The Finals have been cursed by the weather in the past 4 years.  2010, 2012 and (presumably) 2013 have all been held on the rain course.  2010 was the tough one, with rain pouring down on the athletes and shivering cold making it a miserable day.  This Finals promises to be a dry, flat and fast run.  Advantage to the teams with leg speed.  The route is slightly under a mile and a half and it is repeated a second time to get near the 3 miles.  Just under halfway through the loop is a hairpin 180 degree turn that requires deceleration and then acceleration.  There are no significant hills although the return from the hairpin includes a gradual incline just before arriving at the big crowds lining the route near the Airstrip.  Runners might want to watch one of the race videos from last year, which will impart a good feel for the course and the running conditions that are expected.

Mt SAC Map - Rain Course

Coach’s Information Sheet
For CIF Finals

Race Schedule

Time

Division

7:45

Girls - Division 1

8:05

Girls - Division 2

8:25

Men - Division 1

8:45

Men - Division 2

9:05

Girls - Division 3

9:25

Men - Division 4

9:45

Girls - Division 5

10:05

Men - Division 3

10:25

Girls - Division 4

10:45

Men - Division 5

Girls on the Bubble

Twenty years since our girls went to State and we’re agonizingly close this year.  The 7 fastest teams on Saturday get to Fresno.  Based upon our Prelims performance, we are somewhere around 10th.  Take a look at the Pro Forma team finishes split into 4 tiers to the right.

J Serra is the run-away winner and the next three teams should easily reach State.  However, things get interesting starting with the fifth position.  Four teams separated by a mere 12 points.  Looking at our girls in the 10th position, you might think we are not going to jump into that second tier.  But, it all depends upon how our #4 and #5 girls handle the course.  In compiling these rankings, I threw in Veronica and our #5 scorer at 21 minutes.  However, we know that Veronica is capable of running considerably faster than 21 minutes, if the conditions are right.  A day with no stuff in the air makes a big difference.  Just for argument’s sake, say that Veronica cracks off a 20:10 on Saturday, that brings our point total down to around 190.

Of course, it is not all on Veronica’s shoulders.  Sarah and Olivia need to repeat their Prelims performance and Alissa may have a faster race in her SAC pocket.  Remember that she did an 18:20 at Prelims last year.  There are 12 points right there.  Then there is #5.  That is the girl that could make a big impact.  That position is currently Carlin at 21:04.  Carlin turned in a 20:49 in last year’s Prelims.  A 20:49 this year picks up 10 points.

Our wild card is Alejandra.  It is hard to say if she is ready to deliver a big performance as a frosh.  It is a tough task to run this course in this atmosphere as a unseasoned competitor.  But the girl definitely has strong potential.  With two SAC races under her belt, perhaps she has the course figured out.  We’ll see.  If it doesn’t rain.

First Tier - Division IV Girls’ Teams

Rank

Team

Points

1

J Serra

79

2

Harvard/Westlake

144

3

Big Bear

163

4

Nipomo

172

Second Tier -  Division IV Girls’ Teams

Rank

Team

Points

5

Mayfield

192

6

Oaks Christian

197

7

La Reina

201

8

Templeton

204

Third Tier -  Division IV Girls’ Teams

Rank

Team

Points

9

Xavier Prep

218

10

San Marino

219

10

Crean Lutheran

219

12

Laguna Beach

220

Fourth Tier - Division IV Girls’ Teams

Rank

Team

Points

13

Fillmore

236

14

Notre Dame (S.O.)

237

15

Paraclete

249

16

Flintridge Prep

287

Point totals do not include displacers.

Double Bubble

Titan Men’s Prospects Very Similar to Girls’

A quick look at the top teams from both heats of the men’s Division 4 Prelims races last Saturday indicates that there is a big gap between #10 and #11.  That may leave 10 teams fighting for 7 tickets to Fresno.  An examination of the structure of each of those teams indicates that four of them - J Serra, Salesian, Crean Lutheran and Morro Bay - will make it to State without much sweat.  J Serra and Crean Lutheran are very closely matched and it will be interesting to see which one emerges as CIF Champion.

Even though Laguna Beach finished second in our heat last Saturday, they are vulnerable - their #3, #4 and #5 can be beaten.  Harvard/Westlake’s #4 (16:50) has been better than our #4 and that is their entire advantage over us.  Big Bear’s team is nearly identical to us except that they have Caleb Webb.  He is the difference between our two teams.   Xavier Prep’s #5 turned in a 17:58 last Saturday.  That will be a major point drag for them in the Finals.  Oaks Christian is weak at #4 and #5 but they have the fastest man in Division 4.  Even with Fredrickson, we can probably finish ahead of them.  We look like #8 but we have a chance.

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